DL 1044 · SEA → JFK

departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 12:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1044 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?