Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1233 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

DL 1233 · JFK → AUS

took off 8:43 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1233 · JFK → AUS

Odds over time