DL 1387 · MSY → JFK

departs 6:59 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1387 · MSY → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?