DL 1409 · ROC → DTW

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ROC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1409 · ROC → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?