DL 1465 · ATL → SAT

took off 4:18 PM ET · expected to land 5:13 PM CT (scheduled 3:58 PM ET → 5:29 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1465 · ATL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?