DL 1475 · SAT → DTW

departs 3:58 PM CT · arrives 8:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1475 · SAT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?