Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2540 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

DL 2540 · LGA → MCO

took off 8:10 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:55 PM ET → 11:03 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2540 · LGA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?