Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2824 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

DL 2824 · MCO → CVG

took off 7:34 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:18 PM ET → 9:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2824 · MCO → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?