DL 2842 · ATL → SDF

took off 8:22 PM ET · expected to land 9:16 PM ET (scheduled 8:09 PM ET → 9:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2842 · ATL → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?