DL 2857 · ATL → MDT

departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2857 · ATL → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?