Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
DL 2870 · SFO → SEA
departs 10:35 AM PT · arrives 12:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.