Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

DL 407 · LAX → DTW

departs 10:20 PM PT · arrives 5:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 407 · LAX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?