Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 424 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

DL 424 · JFK → DEN

took off 6:06 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:48 PM ET → 7:55 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 424 · JFK → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?