DL 442 · DTW → SFO

took off 4:34 PM ET · expected to land 5:49 PM PT (scheduled 4:17 PM ET → 6:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 442 · DTW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?