DL 492 · SAN → DTW

took off 12:00 PM PT · expected to land 6:53 PM ET (scheduled 11:37 AM PT → 7:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 492 · SAN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?