DL 684 · JFK → PDX

took off 7:07 PM ET · expected to land 9:45 PM PT (scheduled 5:59 PM ET → 9:13 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
75%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 684 · JFK → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?