DL 805 · SFO → DTW

departs 2:27 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 805 · SFO → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?