Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 869 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

DL 869 · DFW → LGA

took off 5:36 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:10 PM CT → 8:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 869 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?