Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1016 LANDED 9:49 AM AT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

F9 1016 · PHL → SJU

took off 6:32 AM ET · landed 9:49 AM AT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1016 · PHL → SJU

Odds over time