Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 1086 · PHX → MCO
departs 12:12 AM MT · arrives 7:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
12am departures from PHX are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.