F9 1102 · ATL → PHL

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 10:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1102 · ATL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?