Schedule: FAA flight plans.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1538 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

F9 1538 · TPA → BWI

took off 8:00 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:03 PM ET → 9:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±1 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1538 · TPA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?