F9 1549 · JAX → ATL

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1549 · JAX → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?