Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1653 LANDED 8:58 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

F9 1653 · MCO → SAT

took off 7:40 AM ET · landed 8:58 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1653 · MCO → SAT

Odds over time