F9 2050 · ATL → MCO

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2050 · ATL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?