F9 2355 · SAT → DEN

departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:36 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2355 · SAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?