F9 3286 · DEN → CVG

took off 11:27 AM MT · landed 3:40 PM ET (scheduled 11:19 AM MT → 4:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CVG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3286 · DEN → CVG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CVG?