F9 3406 · SEA → DEN

departs 4:36 PM PT · arrives 8:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3406 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?