F9 3453 · LGA → ATL

took off 5:15 PM ET · landed 7:00 PM ET (scheduled 4:57 PM ET → 7:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ATL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3453 · LGA → ATL

Odds over time

How late did it get to ATL?