F9 4036 · ATL → CLE

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 8:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4036 · ATL → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?