Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4186 · DEN → DTW
departs 6:59 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 44%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.