Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
F9 4306 · SFO → SAN
departs 10:23 PM PT · arrives 12:04 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 56%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 40%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.