Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4369
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4369 · TYS → DEN
departs 8:19 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Fri 10/2 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.