F9 4402 · SFO → LAS

departs 7:03 PM PT · arrives 8:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±12 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4402 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?