Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4601 LANDED 1:35 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

F9 4601 · EWR → ATL

took off 11:51 AM ET · landed 1:35 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4601 · EWR → ATL

Odds over time