Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4626 · DEN → MEM
departs 3:43 PM MT · arrives 7:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 36%
Mon 10/5 27%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.