Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9059 LANDED 5:37 PM MT, ~37 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

F9 9059 · TPA → TUS

took off 4:58 PM ET · landed 5:37 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 9059 · TPA → TUS

Odds over time