Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9174 LANDED 12:26 PM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

F9 9174 · BHM → MCO

took off 10:11 AM CT · landed 12:26 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 9174 · BHM → MCO

Odds over time