Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9485 LANDED 1:43 PM MT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

F9 9485 · MSN → PHX

took off 12:17 PM CT · landed 1:43 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 9485 · MSN → PHX

Odds over time