G4 1202 · CID → SFB

took off 10:54 AM CT · landed 2:09 PM ET (scheduled 10:41 AM CT → 2:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFB?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.19 in

SFB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1202 · CID → SFB

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFB?