Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1294 LANDED 4:27 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

G4 1294 · SBN → SFB

took off 2:27 PM ET · landed 4:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SBN is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.42 in

SFB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1294 · SBN → SFB

Odds over time