G4 1625 · DSM → LAS

took off 2:46 PM CT · landed 3:25 PM PT (scheduled 2:41 PM CT → 4:03 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.31 in

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1625 · DSM → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?