G4 1700 · MFE → LAS

took off 4:46 PM CT · expected to land 5:25 PM PT (scheduled 4:47 PM CT → 6:04 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1700 · MFE → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?