G4 1853 · AVL → SFB

departs 1:43 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1853 · AVL → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?