G4 2300 · AZA → MOT

departs 3:01 PM MT · arrives 7:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MOT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MOT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MOT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2300 · AZA → MOT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MOT?