G4 254 · SFB → AVL

took off 4:12 PM ET · expected to land 5:18 PM ET (scheduled 4:03 PM ET → 5:39 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AVL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFB are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

AVL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 254 · SFB → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?