G4 2850 · SFB → SBN

took off 11:01 AM ET · landed 1:10 PM ET (scheduled 10:59 AM ET → 1:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SBN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2850 · SFB → SBN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBN?