Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
G4 2857 · SFB → MFE
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
3pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SFB is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.