Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
G4 2865 · SWF → SFB
departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SWF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SWF
Weather at each end
SWF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.