G4 2900 · DSM → SFB

took off 12:57 PM CT · landed 4:18 PM ET (scheduled 12:44 PM CT → 4:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFB?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 12pm departures from DSM are usually not late

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.31 in

SFB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2900 · DSM → SFB

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFB?